BYU's odds of going undefeated

I just had a random thought today about what BYU's chances are of going through their schedule undefeated. With my mathematical mind I decided to go through each of BYU's games and figure out my own odds of them finishing undefeated. Let me know what you think of the odds for each game and what you would put as the percentages for each game. (The percentages listed are for BYU winning that game)

1. Northern Iowa: 99%. Bronco won't let us overlook anyone.

2. @ Washington: 74%. Locker has to have a big day running to beat us.

3. UCLA: 87%. UCLA is worse than last year, and its at home.

4. Wyoming: 97%. Wyoming is improved, but not enough to beat us at home.

5. @ Utah State: 99%. The Aggies are struggling.

6. New Mexico: 94%. This would be a difficult game on the road.

7. @ TCU: 79%. This will be a tough road game on a short week.

8. UNLV: 98%. Rebels are terrible

9. @ Colorado St.: 96%. I'll give them a small shot since its on the road.

10. SDSU: 98%. About as bad as UNLV

11. @ Air Force. 92%. The Fly Boys lose a lot of seniors.

12. @ Utah. 71%. Utes always tough. Probably toughest game of year.

Total odds of finishing undefeated....drum roll please.... 27%

Let me hear what you think!!

Just FYI...Vegas puts the odds of BYU winning the national championship at 60/1. I think if BYU was somehow able to reach the National title game, it would have less than a 50/50 chance of winning against the team they would play. Which would put BYUs odds of winning the title at around 10%. Obviously I'm a BYU fan so these odds are probably lower than I would like but I feel they are pretty accurate.

I'll also throw in a plug for my buddy Adam Olsen who has a great blog at http://www.go-cougs.blogspot.com/. He had some great comments on my post from Monday. You can check out what I thought about it in the comments section, but I just wanted to elaborate a bit on the receiver situation.

He's probably right about the Austin Collie situation, in that Austin will be fine and ready to go by Aug. 31. I just hope it doesn't become a situation where it affects him throughout the rest of the season like his ankle injury from last year. It seems like everytime a player has a minor injury, they say it is no big deal, then it lingers the whole season and it affects their play, then they admit after the year is done that it was worse than they led everyone to believe (Vakapuna last year, Hall's shoulder last year, Collie's ankle last year) I could go on and on.

I'm sorry but Michael Reed is not a deep threat. He's physical, has good hands, and is good across the middle, but doesn't have break away speed. Ashworth, Hafoka, and especially Chambers have the potential to become deep threats but Ashworth and Hafoka are just off missions and Chambers is raw. Mckay Jacobsen will become the next deep threat after Collie but he won't be back until next year.